Debate Platform

There have been several speculations in the blogosphere about the fate of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft business unit. Let me list two of those articles.

  1. Why Boeing or Airbus Would Pay Bombardier Inc. Big Money for the CSeries“, The Motley Fool, September 22, 2015 (click here)
  2. AIRBUS, BOEING & COMAC of China in a Bidding War for a piece of Bombardier Aerospace Commercial division?“, Fliegerfaust, October 2, 2015 (click here)

I am not going to give my view because I obviously have some constraints that do not allow me to share my views on this matter publicly.

This being said, I would like to hear your opinion, view or analysis concerning this topic. Although I won’t give my opinion, I might ask some questions in order to have more detailed explanation on your comments.

The comment section of this post can be the platform for a discussion.

I also reserve the right to edit or not to publish comments


Ergometer is a strange word, according to wikipedia it comes from Greek words ergon and metron (click here). Why the heck do I tell you this? Well, we are now in October and usually our rowing season on the water ends in October. This year the temperature falls a little bit earlier and thus this morning I could not row on the water. It is because it is windy and cold.

So I went to the gym close to my place and row on the “erg“. I almost forget how boring it is to row without moving at all. After only 3 km I stopped because I wanted to do other things. When you are on the water, you need to suppress this desire to do other things. After all you have to go back to the docks, wash the boat and store it back in the hangar, close the logbook and chat with other humans in the club.

Of course, the above is not at all the purpose of this blog entry, although the idea to write this article popped up during my erg session.

Emirates Will Not Make An Order For A350 Nor 787-100 This Year

There have been a lot of speculation about Emirates’ willingness to order some 787-10 as the replacement of the A350 order it canceled back in 2014 (click here). Initially, the rumors say that     the 70 to 100 orders for 787-10 could happen as early as during Dubai airshow in one month.

However, Flightglobal wrote in a very interesting article (click here) that Emirates will finally decide on the choice next year. The more it goes, the more the question about a possible mixed A350 787 order becomes credible, despite the fact Emirates ordered a big number of 777-9 and 777-8.

I still do not fully understand the rationale or ordering the A350-900 and A350-1000 in the first place, but that’s not the point. The point is that if Emirates pushes the decision to order either A350 or 787 to next year it means that the choice is not so obvious and the guys in Emirates need more time to decide offer the best deal for the airline or maybe even for some personal interest.

In simple words, the speculation about Emirates next widebody order will not stop this year.

Strange Notion

In the Flightglobal article, you can read the following text.

Emirates cancelled its original order for 70 A350-900/1000s last year, but Clark says he is happy with revised performance numbers from Airbus, now that the -900 has entered service. “We are now getting meaningful figures,” he says. “The originals were just estimates.”

Sir Clark’s statement does not make much sense in my mind because he ordered the 777-9 and 777-8 based on estimates too. Something is very fishy there, really fishy. In addition, the 787-10 performance is also still “estimates”. What is the real meaning of his statement? The notion of “estimates” in this context is really weird.

Is Sir Tim Clark trying to transmit a subliminal message about the A380neo? What or who is the originator of the message? Honestly, I am not sure about what he is trying to achieve with his words.

It is possible that the fate of the extra 50 A380 orders depends on the possible orders for A350 next year. Just imagine that Emirates decides to reduce its A380 orders and orders the 787-10. It is obviously something that people in Toulouse cannot allow to happen.

This Or That, But Not Both

Despite the mounting speculation about possible mixed order between the A350 and the 787, the above mentioned Flightglobal article reported that Sir Clark stated, “It will be in 2016 – but when, I don’t know – and it will be one or the other.” This being said, in mathematic, the operator “or” is interpreted as “or/and”, perhaps he is very good in mathematics and thus he use the term “or” in a mathematical way. There is a very specific term in mathematics for an exclusive or.

Strange Coincidence

On 15 September this year, a French journal Les Echos reported that Mr Fabrice Bregier said, “There will be no decision on the A380neo before the end of the year.” Only days after Mr Fabrice Bregier’s declaration Sir Tim Clark finally said that, “There will be no decision on A350 or 787-10 before the end of the year”.

Damn it! It can’t be a pure coincidence. It just cannot be.

Your MOM Is Here

The discussion about MOM is getting louder and louder everyday. Today, three comments were posted on the post titled “Chatter On The Line” (click here). I already posted several blog entries about this very particular subject, some of them are listed below.

  1. “Hot MOM” (click here)
  2. “MOM’s Territory” (click here)

Other blogers and discussion forums have also discussed about this very exciting MOM since several months now. This aircraft is not very well defined yet, so it is like a specific MOM I’d like to find.

How Big Is Your MOM?

I already gave my opinion about an attractive MOM and also the size of the market targeted by this aircraft. I think these points were mentioned in the post number two in the list above. Everybody has his or her own opinion about the right size of a MOM. I respect their opinion, I have already given mine.

The other question is of course whether it should be a twin aisle or a single aisle. Honestly and sincerely, a good MOM should be twin aisle, but that`s only a question of personal opinion.

MOM Could Potentially Be An Improved Existing (Top) Model

I still remember about this very successful model called the 767. There are more than 1,000 units delivered since its inception. Of your, when this model was young it was quite attractive and it was the very first aircraft model that crossed the Atlantic under the ETOPS rules. If my memory serves me well it was in 1985 (I don’t want to check it, if you want to do it please do).

This model is getting older because it flew for the first time in the early 1980. It is now about 34 years old, but it is still looking quite cute. You know, 34 years old is not too old. Look, Helen Hunt is 52 years old and yet she still looks good.

Now, just imagine if the 767 gets new set of carbon fiber wings and a pair of new engines! Wouldn’t it be gorgeous?

Where To Build MOM’s Wings

Normally, Los Angeles (“The Angels”) should be the right place to build wings for MOMs. But I sincerely think it should be done in Seattle area.

At one point I asked myself whether the huge new factory with several autoclaves would be dedicated exclusively for the 777-9 and 777-8. After several weeks, my brain struck a very strange idea, “What if that factory will also be the place where MOM’s wings will be built?”

If you read this blog since the beginning (Damn! It all started seven years ago!) you certainly have noticed that I have a fertile imagination (and I like viruses). The good thing about being a free blogger is that I can say anything I want, even if the idea is stupid. Nobody pays me to write clever entry here. So, I can write down my opinion and speculation freely.

Anyhow, there is not any reason why you can’t bake 767-8’s wings inside the huge autoclave (the big blue “al” baker).

So, here ends the blog entry for today. I am taking one day off tomorrow because I have to take my cars to the garage for repair and servicing. Believe me, commuting on a total of 100 km per day destroys your car very fast. But that’s not your problem, is it?

About Productivity, Again

In several posts I mentioned the effort on productivity gain Boeing has been doing since several years now. Some people tell me, “It is to cover the excessive 787 costs.”

I always have a very different story. In my very humble opinion, some Boeing executives now understand that the only way to compete against an aircraft manufacturer that is backed by four rich European nations is to become very productive (or cost effective).

The cost reduction effort allowed Boeing Commercial Airplanes to increase its production output with almost the same industrial footprint, including the workforce.

Airbus Has To Increase Its Efficiency Too

Back in November 2014, I posted a blog entry titled “Exceptional Income” (click here), in which I wrote, “Sincerely, I think Airbus needs to execute their restructuring seriously. They must increase their productivity by a significant amount. Unfortunately, very often productivity increase means job cuts.

It seems they are indeed doing it very seriously. This evening I read a press article mentioning a new cost-cutting program called “SCOPe+” (click here). As you see, the name has a “plus” in it. So, most probably there has been another one called “SCOPe” several months ago.

Clearly, Airbus is trying to increase its productivity too, which I find a very good move especially if they are serious on reducing the amount of subsidy for new aircraft programs.

One of the effort is by asking suppliers to reduce the price. It means that their suppliers also need to increase their productivity. Guess what? In the end, some jobs will be shed if it is not already done.

Voluntary Leave

I am currently receiving requests to transmit CV’s, which I do voluntarily. However, I am asking the motivation behind such surge of job shoppers from Toulouse.

Suddenly I realized that perhaps there is another “Voluntary Leave” program yet again. Well, to be honest I did take the incentive to be in the list of the volunteers for redundancy back then. Of course a company cannot let people leave if they are needed. So, usually there are some criteria as who can volunteer to be laid-off, with incentive. One of the criteria is very obviously you need to be an “overhead”. Managers and Directors are by definition “overhead”.

In 2008 I was an engineer, so why could I take benefit of the voluntary redundancy? Very simple, someone at that time decided that the whole “Future Projects” organization was “overhead”, which is true in some sort. By the way, the cost-cutting program at that time was called “Power 8”.

That year was also the year of my Mother’s death, so I needed this “atmosphere change”. The voluntary redundancy offer fell on me like a sign from above that I should do something different. So when I learned that I could qualify, I just filed my application and was accepted.

There was a very funny anecdote during the process. At one point I received the offer, but somebody screwed-up and sent me someone else’s offer, the incentive in that offer was €158,000 (One hundred and fifty eight thousand Euros). Well, I had to return the offer because it was not my name. When I finally got mine, I saw the number which was not even the third of the wrong offer.

Is there currently another voluntary leave offer in Airbus? Maybe, I do not know.


This weekend I didn’t have the time to write any blog entry. Seriously, I am not complaining at all, but it seems a weekend of two days is just not enough for me. First I have my rituals like doing some sports, going to the library, going to the market, cooking, going to regattas, being invited to dinners or to a birthday party. That’s my life during the last two weekends.And yes, I want to keep some level of social life too (click here). Then I must do the house keeping too.

How can I find the time to iron clothing of the whole family. Well, I can’t. So I can tell you I still have at least one big basket with clean clothing to iron and another one full of socks to sort out pair by pair. All that after I ironed two baskets!

Anyways, you don’t give a heck to my time table or household task, I think.

Why This Silly Post?

Well, I just realized I didn’t post any entry during six days! So, I need to post something otherwise people would ask if I am still alive.

So, Sunday evening I was invited to a birthday in a good restaurant “Manitoba“. We drank, chatted, laughed, ate and so on and so on. That’s the normal thing when people go out to restaurant in a group.

Everything was really cool even when suddenly someone brought the topic about the Syrian refugees. Oh damn it, I was enjoying the meal when I heard about the fate of these people. It triggered a kind of strange feeling in my mind. How lucky I am here in Montreal and have everything I need.

Perhaps you do not know, but Indonesia had a very difficult times around 1965. Seriously many people were affected and I was also affected by the events directly or indirectly. So, having witnessed the consequences of a civil unrest myself, I am a little bit more sensitive to the difficulties these people are facing.

Anyhow, I succeeded to chase those images out of my head when the conversation changed to something more joyful  like the next regatta in Ottawa the coming weekend. Initially I was tempted to participate, but I realized that maybe I should rest a little bit and cook good things I learned from a friend.

By now, you know everything about my life, but I know if you read this blog it is because you would like to read about aircraft. And yes, we are now going to talk a little bit about narrowbodies.

All A320neo Flight Test Articles Are Back In The Air

After several months of grounding, the other A320neo flight test article is now back in the air and thus the A320neo flight test program is at full steam to achieve entry into service by the end of 2015 (or not).

As you know I have always qualified this as aircraft as “prematurely launched” especially when you know that the backlog was at a whopping 2,200 units back in 2010 when it was launched. So what would happen to the A320ceo? Many A320ceo have been canceled, others have been converted to A320neo.

I am today still expecting several hundreds of A320ceo cancellations or conversions. So far this year, there have been only 37 cancellations and 31 conversion to A320neo.

Curiously, all of the 67 Kingfisher A320ceo orders are still in the order book. Most probably some people are still waiting for a fool who is fool enough to buy an “airline” that does not have any aircraft, does not have staff, does not have any license to operate, does not have any landing slot, but that has a hell lot of debt. Come on!

The 737 MAX Is Also Progressing

The other aircraft in development that is the 737 MAX is also progressing. A fellow blogger posted something about this topic (click here).

That’s the other aircraft that was launched a little bit “prematurely” too. However, I already said several times that in reality the 737 MAX allows Boeing not to spend a lot of money while restoring the status quo between the A320 and the 737. Time to time, I also say that Airbus gave to Boeing a formidable chance to not spend its capital in the narrowbody segment and to invest on the long range widebody instead (777-9 and 777-8).

Now, What About The C Series?

Well, I am so sorry to disappoint you, but I cannot say much about this. I can, however, express my opinion that I am happy with what I have seen so far and God knows I see a lot.

Don’t ask me any question about the aircraft. I won’t answer.

All the above being said, I wish you a very enjoyable evening with your loved ones.

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